This is one of the most exciting times of the year in college basketball when we often see the underdog come out on top and shock the nation. Upsets are consistently among the best betting opportunities for savvy bettors and basketball fans alike when predicting winners throughout the tournament. But how do you identify those potential Cinderella stories? Let’s take a look at some key factors and strategies to keep in mind when making March Madness upset predictions.
Analyzing Non-Conference Play
March Madness frequently sees teams from across the nation, and the tournament is often the first opportunity for teams to go up against non-conference opponents since the beginning of the season. Something you can do when trying to make upset predictions is to look at how teams fared against tough non-conference opponents much earlier in the season.
What to Look For:
Close losses to top teams: First, teams that stayed close in games against powerhouses, even as double-digit underdogs, might be setting up for upsets.
Turnover management: A team’s ability to control the basketball, limit mistakes, and play smart could propel it to an upset.
Shooting well: Teams that can shoot well from 3 or have a high free-throw percentage regularly do well in March, where tight games are standard.
A Tough Defense Is a Harbinger of Good Things
Good defense is half the battle of March Madness, and teams that run on defensive fundamentals are bound to exceed expectations. Successful underdogs usually are defensive-minded, which is baked into the team’s game plan.
Watch for these defensive signals:
Low field goal percentage allowed: Teams that can smother the opposition and help ensure their opponents don’t score efficiently have a better shot at keeping their games close and finding ways to pull upsets.
Steals and pressure defense: Similar to teams that are aggressive with their defensive plays, teams who focus on steals and pressure defense, which leads to greater chances of offensive breakdowns, can make a serious run in high-pressure games like those during March Madness.
3-point defense: It is critical to spend K defensive stops on teams that rely heavily on the three-point shot, a variation that challenges long-range shots without fouling.
One of the best examples of a solid defensive underdog in recent March Madness history is UCLA during the 2021 tournament. UCLA, a No. 11 seed, also made it to the Final Four, partially because of its stout defense under coach Mick Cronin. Up to that point, their formula relied on stout defense, holding high-octane offenses like Alabama and Michigan in check with key plays.
How Teams Fare Against Better Opponents
One crucial element to predicting March Madness upsets is how teams performed when they played stronger competition during the regular season. A team may have a nice record, but how do they play against the top-25 quality teams they played? Those are not the only ones struggling against the elite; others struggle to raise their game when the lights shine brightest.
Key Questions to Consider:
Did they get blown out by top teams? On the other hand, being consistently blown out by top-25 opponents correlates with struggles in March Madness.
Did they stay competitive against strong opponents? To the extent that a team can remain competitive with good teams, that might mean they’re capable of surprising performance when
it’s most important.
All Underdogs Who Raise Their Game Under Pressure
You have teams that feel comfortable in high-stakes situations. These teams are usually battle-tested, with players able to succeed when the stakes are highest. Target the underdogs with experience in close games who understand the pressures of March Madness.
Signs of a Strong Underdog:
Buzzer-beater potential: Teams with the potential to win close games with a signature play or last-second shot are also upset bait.
Coaching experience: Strong, veteran coaches often help teams pull off shocking victories, as they can make in-game adjustments and manage the nerves of the tournament.
Delving Deep for March Madness Upset Power
Predicting March Madness upsets isn’t an easy thing to do, but by concentrating on things like defense, non-conference play, how teams did against better teams, and the ability to perform under pressure, you can make better predictions. Study up: This isn’t a vanity metric the teams, the players, and their past performances are all important to whittle down those numbers; there are gems buried in the stats that we may not see until a buzzer-beater shocks us. What to watch out for when making predictions for March Madness upsets and have fun during the excitement of March Madness.